Michigan has almost 5,800 COVID-19 deaths, model predicts 9K by October

By: - June 12, 2020 2:50 pm


The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) reports Friday that 59,621 Michiganders have tested positive for COVID-19 and 5,745 have died from the virus — an additional 125 cases and eight deaths since Thursday.

The virus has now spread to all but one of Michigan’s 83 counties.

The first two cases of COVID-19 were reported in the state on March 10. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of emergency that day.

Johns Hopkins University reports that there are more than 7.5 million confirmed cases worldwide and 423,155 deaths. In the United States, there are more than 2 million confirmed cases and 114,126 deaths.

Michigan COVID-19 deaths forecast, June 12, 2020 | IHME model

Updated COVID-19 forecast

A prominent data model used by the White House has updated its COVID-19 projections for Michigan once again.

The University of Washington model is known as the most optimistic forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak. Its latest update this week now estimates that Michigan’s death toll will not peak in August, as previously predicted, but in early October.

The UWash projection also forecasts a higher number of total COVID-19 deaths by that time, with 8,771 by October 1. That is 2,970 higher than the model’s previous update just over two weeks ago, which had foretold a peak of 5,801 deaths by Aug. 4.

U.S. COVID-19 deaths forecast, June 12, 2020 | IHME model

The model’s national figures have also been adjusted. The United States is now estimated to see 169,890 total deaths by Oct. 1, with a possible range between 133,201 and 290,222.

“This represents a potential 30,610 additional cumulative COVID-19 deaths between August – the previous time period for cumulative death estimation – and October 2020,” reads the June 10 update on UWash Medicine’s website.

One of the previous projections prior to this week’s update had estimated about 132,000 total American deaths by August, meaning that it has now been bumped up by nearly 38,000 and pushed back by two months.

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Laina G. Stebbins
Laina G. Stebbins

Laina G. Stebbins is a former Michigan Advance reporter. A lifelong Michigander, she is a graduate of Michigan State University’s School of Journalism, where she served as Founding Editor of The Tab Michigan State and as a reporter for the Capital News Service.